# Pricing rationale: Verifiable Forecast Log

Prepared 2026-11-14. These prices are HYPOTHESES, not validated demand.

## Plans on Whop
- Standard: $19, one-time. One person, own use.
- Team (up to 15): $49, one-time. One organisation, up to 15 people.
- Digital download (zip). No hosted service, no support commitment, no recurring billing.

## Why these numbers
No paid comparable was read. The free neighbours (Metaculus, ForecastBench) are platforms for public forecasting, not a private tamper-evident log; the tool also uses free OpenTimestamps. Price $19 is between the $15 same-store tools and the $29 floor of paid monthly tools read. Team $49 for up to 15 people.

The legal boundary (non-financial events only) limits the market; no lawyer has reviewed the legal note.

## Fee effect
Whop's card fee (2.7% + $0.30, before any international or conversion surcharge) is about 4.3% of $19 and 3.3% of $49. The fixed $0.30 makes low prices fee-heavy.

## What this research does not show
No source read measures willingness to pay for a narrow calibration tool. Competitor prices are for hosted, usage-metered platforms, not self-host downloads, so they are anchors, not proof. The first real sales (or none) should be treated as the price test.

## Sources (all read 2026-11-14; from `calibration_check/pricing_research.md`)
- LangSmith: https://www.langchain.com/pricing (Developer $0; Plus $39 per seat per month)
- Langfuse: https://langfuse.com/pricing (Hobby free; Core $29/month; Pro $199)
- Braintrust: https://www.braintrust.dev/pricing (Starter $0; Pro $249/month)
- Arize AX: https://arize.com/pricing (Free; Pro $50/month)
- ForecastBench: https://www.forecastbench.org/ and Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/about/ (no price on the pages read)
- Whop fees: https://docs.whop.com/fees (2.7% + $0.30 per card payment; +1.5% international; +1% currency conversion)
- OpenTimestamps: https://opentimestamps.org/ (free calendars)